thisyearinbaseball

This is not an announcement about Prince Fielders new home, or Carlos Pena returning to the Rays. I have been plucked by the big club, and I’m taking my talents to South Beach.

All kidding aside, i have accepted a staff post at the Phillies Blog “That Balls Outa Here”, which is a part of fansided.com. The focus of my blog will narrow to the fightin’ Phils, but my ramblings will expand in magnitude. You can catch my posts, and the rest of the staff at thatballsoutahere.com.

While there’s been a bevy of moves to fill teams’ needs this off-season, not all of them were good ones. These three moves are the worst so far, not because these players can’t help their new teams, but because their value is either mismatched for the team or the contract they signed. I even managed to remain unbiased, saving my biggest complaint for my favorite team; the Phillies.

1) CHI Carlos Quentin to SD for Pedro Hernandez and Simon Castro

The White Sox are in strange territory this off-season. Rebuilding has been a word general manager, Kenny Williams, has managed to avoid during his tenure, until now. Williams is finally embracing reality and has been trimming veteran players to re-stock the farm. The latest victim is right-handed slugger, Carlos Quentin. Quentin is in his last year of arbitration before hitting the open market in 2013. He is due a raise from his $5 million salary and could command even more in a long term deal. His line from last season (.254/.340) is not very impressive, but Quentin still managed 24 homers in only 483 AB’s (20.1 AB/HR).

This power that Quentin brings to the plate could be mitigated by San Diego’s homer-killing stadium. He is hardly a gazelle in the outfield either, which should put more pressure on whomever is in center field to cover ground. New GM Josh Byrnes has made some savvy moves to help the ball club thus far, but it’s hard to figure how Quentin fits into San Diego’s plans.

Don’t expect Quentin to be patrolling left field for San Diego very long. They view him as a stop gap until they find a long term replacement. The White Sox will save some money, but they weren’t able to get any top prospects back in return for this 2-time all star.

2) LAA sign Albert Pujols (10 years – $242 mil + a lot of perks)

How could the Angels signing of Albert Pujols be a bad thing, you ask? To be clear, the addition of Albert Pujols to the Angels lineup will make them a much better team. His numbers speak for themselves. He has never hit fewer than 32 home runs in a season, and he sports a career .328 average. For a team that sorely lacked offensive firepower last season, Pujols will be an instant hit.

The acquisition of Pujols does come with some concerns. The three time MVP is on the wrong side of 30, and he is only getting older. Prince Albert signed for ten seasons, taking him past 40. While many of those seasons should be productive, Albert has already shown signs of aging. For the past two years, Albert has dealt with elbow troubles and posted the lowest WAR (wins above replacement by an average AAA player) of his career since 2002.

The success/failure of Pujols in Los Angeles will be measured by the final five years, rather than the first five. Winning a world series in Los Angeles will help forgive the final years ($25 mil annually) when Prince Albert becomes an Albatross.

3) Phillies sign Jonathan Papelbon (4 years $50 mil)

Ruben Amaro wasted no time this off season signing former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year deal. Papelbon got more bucks and years than any other closer on the market. Rather than let the market settle, the Phillies did not hesitate in making their move. After negotiations with Ryan Madson broke down, they quickly turned around and signed arguably the top closer on the market. But did they need to?

Coming into the off-season the Phillies had holes at short stop and left field, in addition to closer. Rather than deal with star short stop Jimmy Rollins’ new contract, they chose to fill the closer vacancy first. Last years’ closer, Ryan Madson, filled in for an injured Brad Lidge and locked down the position. His changeup is one of the best in the game, but the team decided one year of closing games wasn’t enough to warrant a long term deal.

Ultimately Madson stayed on the market as other teams filled their vacant closer spots through trades (ie. Houston Street, Andrew Bailey). After weeks of waiting, Madson finally signed with the Reds–but for only 1 year. He will prove that he is indeed ready to be a full-time closer and hit the market next year competing with fewer proven closers. The Reds’ patience paid off, as they got one of the best bargains of the off-season. Couldn’t the Phillies have taken this same approach?

They were patient with short stop Jimmy Rollins, waiting him out until his demands came down. With so many options available at closer, it defies logic as to why they needed to act so quickly. Ruben Amaro and the rest of the Phillies brass know all to well what life can be like with a shaky closer (see Brad Lidge 09’). With their window to win another world series shrinking, Amaro had to guarantee that they had no ninth inning woes in 2012. However, with the flood of available closers, Amaro could have had a top flight closer, if he had exhibited a little more patience. The Phillies will be fine in 2012, but if Papelbon’s fastball starts to lose velocity, the final seasons of the contract will be a huge burden.

Happy New Year everyone! After taking a brief holiday hiatus, I’m back on the blogosphere. New Years often is a time of reflection, thinking about the highs and lows of the past, so that we can experience renewal for the upcoming year. In that train of thought, I’ve compiled a list of my top three transactions from the offseason so far, which should help the clubs involved moving forward. There is a tendency for analysts to declare winners and losers of each trade, but I always feel the best trades are measured by the mutual success for both teams. With that in mind, here are the three best (win-win) transactions of the off season to date.

1) The Boston Red Sox traded Miles Head (minors), Raul Alcantara (minors) and Josh Reddick to the Oakland Athletics for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney.

Oakland continued their fire sale this offseason by dealing their closer, Andrew Bailey, and outfielder, Ryan Sweeney, to the Red Sox. The Sox showed great patience with a flooded closer market and avoided overpaying for a big name closer—well done. Former closer Jonathon Papelbon will be missed, but there was no way that the Red Sox were going to match the offer he received from the Phillies. Bailey compares quite favorably to Papelbon, except when it comes to durability. As long as Bailey can avoid injury troubles, Boston has found their new closer for the foreseeable future (with the added bonus of avoiding the luxury tax threshold).

The centerpiece of Oakland’s return is young outfielder Josh Reddick. Reddick played a support role in Boston in 2011, playing in 87 games. He wracked up a .280 average but showed his youth at the plate. His .327 OBP leaves something to be desired, but if the A’s can impart some of their trademark discipline on Reddick, this trade could wind up a win-win for both sides. The wild card in the deal could be Alcantara. He has a live arm and tore up rookie ball. His production hit a wall upon being promoted to A-ball, but he is just 18 and has upside.

2) OAK Gio Gonzalez to WAS for A.J. Cole (minors), Derek Norris (minors), Tom Milone and Brad Peacock

If you haven’t been paying attention this off season, the Nationals are serious about their prospects for 2012. Washington has a promising young ballclub, that is now bolstered by the addition of former A’s lefty Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been one of the best lefty starters in the AL for the past two seasons, making the all-star team in 2011. He has steadily improved each season in the big leagues and comes quite cheaply (financially speaking).

The Nats did give up a big package of prospects to obtain Gonzalez’s services. All four players are widely-accepted as top ten prospects in the organization. A.J. Cole is the best of the bunch, with Milone and Peacock ready to contribute right away. The A’s are in no hurry to rush any of them to the majors, since they don’t expect to compete until 2014. It can’t be easy to be an Athletics fan right now, watching all these talented players pack their bags. However, Billy Beane has done a good job getting quality prospects, who should help them compete in a couple years. That said, all of this is contingent on the Athletics getting out of Oakland.

3) SD Mat Latos to CIN for Brad Boxberger (minors), Yasmani Grandal (minors), Yonder Alonso and Edinson Volquez.

Cincinnati was rumored to be in the market for a starting pitcher this off-season, but their acquisition of Mat Latos certainly turned heads. At only 24 years of age, Latos has yet to reach his prime, after showing flashes of dominance in San Diego. While critics point to the boost he and other pitchers receive by pitching in spacious Petco park, this kid can flat out pitch; anywhere. The one thing to watch out for with Latos is durability with his shoulder. The Reds have Latos under team control for the next four years, and now have a horse to pair with staff ace Jonny Cueto.

San Diego did not give up their young star ace for a bag of peanuts. Alonso and Grandai were two of the top position players in the Reds system. Both were blocked by established players in Cincy, so their departure was not a shock. That said, Alonso has short swing that could take advantage of the large gaps in Petco. Grandai, while still maturing as a hitter, is a major-league-ready backstop, defensively. Boxbender is thrown into an already strong bullpen, and should quickly alleviate any affects from the loss of closer, Heath Bell. The wild card of the trade is Volquez. After being traded for Josh Hamilton several years ago, their stock has gone in opposite directions. Hamilton has won an MVP, while Volquez can’t find the strike zone consistently. If he is finally healthy, Volquez could regain his form pitching in the spacious confines of San Diego.

Coming soon: My bottom three transactions of the off-season.

It appears that Many Rameriez’s exit from baseball did not last long, as the former all-star filed reinstatement papers with the commissioners office. Manny no doubt would like to redeem his once great image after retiring last season shortly after his positive test for PEDs was revealed. Prior to to testing positive he played a forgettable 5 games with the Tampa Rays before retiring.

It was certainly not the way most great ball players envision their exit from the game, and no doubt Ramirez has been stewing with that thought since April. Enough so, that he is attempting a comeback. Even despite legal troubles in Florida, he should be entirely focused on proving to the world (or at least MLB) that he can still rake. So the question now is who would take a flyer on this once great slugger, never great fielder, and always unpredictable clubhouse clown.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies seem to be a stretch to give Manny a shot at their 25 man roster, but there are deficiencies with this team which Manny could shore up. Ryan Howard is out for at least the beginning of the season, and possibly longer. They have yet to re-sign Jimmy Rollins, and have replaced Raul Ibanez’s average productivity with part time player Laynce Nix. Ramriez’s bat has slowed for sure since his prime days in Cleveland and Boston, and he was barely serviceable playing the field the past few years. However, he would be under the tutelage of former Manager and hitting guru Charlie Manuel. Throw in former Indians teammate Jim Thome (who seemingly is liked by everyone in baseball) and Manny would have enough allies to feel comfortable. And with something to prove, a motivated Manny Ramirez could be a productive piece to a lineup that is in need of some power.

2. Atlanta Braves

Its no secret the Braves have been in search for an outfielder this offseason (and just about every year, why is that?) They have been dangling the versatile Martin Prado to bring in a big right handed bat, but his greatest value to the Braves is his insurance behind the oft injured Chipper Jones. That opens up a lot of innings to be had in LF, and why not give Manny a shot? In limited action in 2010 he put up decent numbers .869 OPS. This would be a big step up from the  .687 which Prado provided last season. Certianly this is not reflective of the Manny of old, but no one should be trying to use him in that capacity. As a part time left fielder/bat off the bench he could contribute to a needy Braves lineup.

3. Florida Marlins

This proposed marriage has more comedic value than realistic probability. The idea of having Ozzie Guillen and Manny Ramirez in the same clubhouse has unlimited potential for feuds and antics. And, given that the Marlins have been in on nearly every free agent so far, why not Manny? It would jive with their desire to acquire players to connect with the heavy Latin demographic fan base of Miami, and he is still a big enough name to help sell tickets.

I would put the odds of Manny landing with these three NL East teams at slim to none, but as we have learned with Ramirez, you have to expect the unexpected.

The signing the baseball world has been waiting for finally came to fruition early this morning, with Albert Pujols putting pen to paper on a ten year $254 million dollar deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim. The past week had rumors swirling that Pujols would form another big three in Miami, or finally head back to St. Louis, where he has enjoyed so much success. Instead, the Cardinals swooped in and made him the highest paid first basemen in history.

Whether or not you agree on giving a player a ten year deal who is on the wrong side of thirty, this move certainly puts the Angels in excellent position to get back to the playoffs next year, and for years to come. Albert has been called a once in a generation type player, who may even go down as one of the greatest hitters ever when all is said and done. He would upgrade any teams lineup, but very few needed him as much as the Halos. Their offense was anemic last season scoring 4.1 runs a game, with a team batting average of .255. The move now makes young slugger Mark Trumbo available to help fill other needs like a left handed bat or bullpen help.

The Halos won’t have to make any moves to beef up the rotation after signing LHP C.J Wilson away from the division rival Texas Rangers shortly after singing Albert. Not only do they now have the best starting pitcher on the market in tow, but they take him from the team they have to beat in 2012. All it took was 15 years and $330 million to acquire the best hitter and starting pitcher of the 2011 field. Its a hefty investment, but it should pay off for a team that wasn’t that far off last season.

This is a veteran ball club that is built to win now, and most likely has a three year window to win a world series. With the added team competing for the wild card in the new playoff format, the Halos should find themselves competing in October. Their big three of Weaver, Haren, and now Wilson can match up with anyone, including the Phillies vaunted starters.

Its easy to get carried away with prognosticating for a team that spends a lot of money in the off season (see 2011 Miami Heat, 2012 Marlins, and 2011 Eagles). The team certainly has holes, but the offseason is far from over and the Angels have made their claim for the AL pennant in a big way today.

Food for thought: What was a bigger move in LA, Pujols to the Angels or Chris Paul to the Lakers?

As always the opening of the Winter Meetings have provided a slew of rumors and speculation. With Jose Reyes signing the first big contract, others are sure to follow. Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and C.J. Wilson head the list of remaining free agents who could receive contracts in the range of Reyes’s and beyond.

The one player who has the most to gain from Reyes signing with the Marlins is Jimmy Rollins. J-Roll has been waiting for Jose to set the market before engaging in serious discussions with other teams. He has stated that he wants a 5-year deal, and so far it seems the Phillies are reluctant to give it to him. A five year pact would take him into his late thirties, with his numbers already much lower than his 2008 MVP season.

The Phils have shown a willing to give contracts longer than their previously stated limits (see Cliff Lee). However, they are witnessing the dead weight of a player who can no longer live out his contract due to diminished health in Placido Polanco. While the Phillies can afford to carry Polanco’s salary, they cannot count on him for a full season. Do the Phillies want to run this risk with Rollins in three to four years?

Rollins value to the Phillies extends beyond his stat sheet, as he has maintained a stellar glove while becoming an icon among the fans, who’s popularity is only exceeded by old timers like Tug McGraw and Steve Carlton. If the Phillies value the intangibles Rollins brings to the franchise look for him to be patrolling Citizens Bank Park for many years to come. With Reyes getting 6 years, it is well within reason that another team will be willing to go 5 to lure away Rollins.

In the end its hard to imagine the Phillies not doing what it takes to bring back one of their most productive, and popular players of the past decade. Look for the Brewers and Cardinals to make a push for J-Roll if either Fielder or Pujols jumps ship. Either way, with Reyes signing with the Marlins today the fleet of foot short stop from Oakland is in line for some serious dough.

Six years and $106 Million later the Florida Marlins have found their short stop.

If this sounds strange it’s because it is, at least for the Florida Marlins that we have come to know. They have built a reputation of selling off their players before writing big checks, but this is a new era for the fish.

Thanks to their new stadium the team has some cash to spend, and it appears they are indeed intent on spending. They started off their off-season by giving closer Heath Bell a 3-year pact. But, the six year deal given to Reyes is the big move they have been flirting with since the start of free-agency.

With Reyes in the fold at short stop that means Hanley Ramirez will have to find a new position. With Ramirez’s defense on the decline this shouldn’t come as a shock. As much of an upgrade Reyes’s defense will be at short stop, Hanley’s shift to third base (or center field) could be a net zero affect on their defense. It is no easy task to teach a player a new position, especially Hanley who does not posses a stellar glove to begin with.

The addition of Jose will certainly help sell tickets in Miami’s new stadium, and give the Marlins the table setter they haven’t had since Juan Pierre on their World Series team. The Marlins lineup should be quite potent with Ramirez, and Mike Stanton providing power from the right side. If Logan Morrison can bounce back from a sophmore slump, there will be very few holes for opposing pitchers to exploit.

Does this move by the Fish mean that they are done spending? I’m sure Marlins fans are holding out hope that they will make a push for Albert Pujols. Logic would dictate that the Marlins won’t have enough left in the bank to lure Pujols away from the only team he has played for (and won two championships). But, as the Reyes signing suggests these are not the Marlins we have come to know and love. They may just have one more surprise signing left up their sleeve.

Hello Baseball Fans!

DISCLAIMER: If your football team is still in playoff contention ignore the following.

In the coming weeks I hope to offer some interesting musings, and thoughts on the baseball offseason to brighten what has been an otherwise dreary fall sports season (Eagles fan).

This inaugural post is a layout of future topics and discussions i’ll be writing about in the coming weeks. Since there won’t be any real baseball for a few months (spring training doesn’t count) my mind tends to wander to fantastical trades and acquisitions that most likely won’t transpire…

BUT this blog is not bound by the rules of reality, and financial constraints although i will offer some objective analysis with any hypothetical wheels and deals.

Future Topics:

The Winter Meetings (Where every GM goes for Christmas Shopping) Top 5 Free agents: And where i think they should be looking houses. Look back at the 2011 season awards: If a pitcher qualifies for MVP shouldn’t position players qualify for the Cy Young? And much much more…

This blog is fully endorsed by Fred McGriff